The Civic Platform - A Political Journal of Ideas and Analysis

There are at least three solid reasons why al-Qaeda is not running an Intifada-like campaign in the United States:

1.) Al-Qaeda does not want to fight the United States for any longer
than is needed to drive it as far as possible out of the Middle East,
and its doctrine for so doing has, in Osama bin Laden’s formulation,
three components: (a) bleed America to bankruptcy; (b) spread out
U.S. forces to the greatest extent possible; and (c) promote Vietnam-
era-like domestic disunity. Based on this doctrine, al-Qaeda leaders
have decided that attacks in the United States are only worthwhile if
they have maximum and simultaneous impact in three areas: high and
enduring economic costs, severe casualties, and lasting negative
psychological impact. Such an attack, they believe, would require
significant U.S. military participation in the post-attack phase –
especially if the weapon used is the nuclear device they have sought
since the early 1990s – and thereby reduce the military’s ability to
operate overseas. They also believe that a greater-than- 9/11 attack
would greatly undermine the confidence of Americans in Washington’s
ability to protect them. (NB: The usually deft Osama bin Laden also
has put himself in something of a box regarding another attack in
America because he pledged the next attack will be more destructive
than 9/11. Paradoxically, a spate of Intifada-type attacks by al-
Qaeda in the United States could well be good news because it
probably would signal an admission by bin Laden, et. al that they no
longer have the capability to match or exceed the attacks of 9/11
inside America.)

More here.